Federal Amendment: A Legal Pretext for Military Intervention in Tigray?
The Ethiopian House of People’s Representatives is set to review and approve a draft amendment law tomorrow, April 1, 2025, that would establish a legal framework for federal intervention in regional affairs. This move comes at a critical time when internal divisions within the TPLF have created uncertainty over Tigray’s security and governance.
On one side, Getachew Reda’s faction supports the presence of federal forces in Tigray, primarily to secure the border with Eritrea, which remains a major concern. On the other hand, Debretsion Gebremichael’s faction - though not officially recognized but believed to have ties with Eritrean forces - strongly opposes any federal military intervention, aligning with Eritrea’s stance against the return of Ethiopian National Defense Forces (ENDF) to the region.
Pretoria Agreement: A Legal Basis for Federal Forces?
The Pretoria Peace Agreement, signed to end the war, explicitly states that federal forces have the right to be deployed in Tigray. According to the official agreement (https://www.peaceau.org/en/article/cessation-of-hostilities-agreement-between-the-government-of-the-federal-democratic-republic-of-ethiopia-and-the-tigray-peoples-liberation-front-tplf), the Ethiopian National Defense Force (ENDF) is mandated to take full control of “all federal facilities, including border security.”
With this amendment now being introduced, many question whether the federal government is merely aligning its legal framework with the agreement or preparing the ground for military intervention under parliamentary approval.
Will Tigray Accept This Amendment?
A major concern is whether Tigray will accept this amendment at all. The Ethiopian Parliament and the House of Federation currently have no single representative from Tigray, meaning the region has no voice in this decision-making process. This raises questions about legitimacy and consent - can a law that directly affects Tigray be imposed without any Tigrayan representation in federal institutions?
If the amendment is ultimately meant to justify the entry of federal forces into Tigray, will the region comply, or will this spark further resistance?
With the vote happening tomorrow, April 1, 2025, the coming hours will determine whether this is a routine legal reform or a calculated move toward military intervention.
